Author: Brian McQuhae

As someone who has seen the Cowichan Valley grow and change over the years, I know how important it is for our communities to have homes that families can actually afford. Right now, Canada’s recent improvements in affordability are at risk as new home construction slows down—especially for those looking to buy. Recent figures suggest we need between 417,000 and 469,000 new housing starts each year to get back to pre-pandemic affordability by 2036, but that supply gap isn’t shrinking.

Across the country, most new builds are rentals, while projects focused on homeownership have dropped off, even though those rentals have helped balance things out a bit. Slower population growth has offered some breathing room, but the construction slowdown has outpaced the drop in demand, which means we could face another shortage when things pick up again.

Here in the Cowichan Valley, I’ve seen firsthand how the right mix of homes can shape a community for the better. Protecting affordability means keeping ownership construction moving—not just for today, but to ensure that when families are ready to make this valley their home, the opportunity is there. That’s something I care deeply about.

Housing affordability across Canada has been showing some improvement, with the national reading reaching around 41% in Q2 2026—thanks in part to lower home prices, reduced borrowing costs, and rising incomes. That said, even after about 13 percentage points of progress since the recent peak, homeownership remains a real challenge for many. On average, housing costs are still taking up about two-fifths of household income, and I know from conversations here in the Cowichan Valley that it often feels tougher than the numbers suggest. One important detail: these figures use average disposable income, not the median, which can paint a rosier picture than what many families actually experience on the ground.

A bank economist points to earlier rate cuts, a roughly 20% drop in national prices since 2022, and stronger incomes as drivers of this positive shift. But looking ahead, the reality is that slow income growth and only modest relief on rates could mean further price adjustments are still ahead. As someone who’s seen firsthand what makes our Valley special—and who’s guided clients through every turn of the market—I believe it’s essential to stay informed and realistic about both the challenges and opportunities in today’s housing landscape.

As someone who’s spent years getting to know every corner of the Cowichan Valley, I keep a close eye on how national housing trends might ripple through our local market. Canada’s housing market is showing signs of recovery since early Q2—resales are picking up, inventory is finding a balance, and prices are either holding steady or softening at a slower pace. That said, the latest bank forecasts suggest we shouldn’t expect a boom: home resales are projected to dip about 4% to 453,200 in 2026, with benchmark prices easing around 2% to $794,200. For 2027, they anticipate a 7% rebound in resales (up to 483,600) and just under 1% growth in benchmark values (to $800,700). The driving force? Pent-up demand—over 400,000 Canadian households have delayed forming since 2019, waiting for the right moment to buy. Ultimately, the market outlook depends on affordability, steady economic growth, and renewed confidence, though with rates likely at their lowest and trade tensions in the mix, there are still a few unknowns ahead. It’s a landscape that calls for local expertise and a steady hand—something I’ve honed after years of helping Cowichan Valley families navigate every type of market.

Standing inventory across BC has reached 6,700 homes—of which 5,500 are condos—reflecting the ongoing breadth of options for buyers across the province. The numbers tell a story beyond just Vancouver or Burnaby: while Burnaby leads with 1,210 unsold homes and Vancouver follows with 1,020, we’re seeing significant inventory in places like Surrey (798), Coquitlam (620), Richmond (396), Kelowna (372), Langley Township (276), New Westminster (224), and Delta (211). Even outside the biggest urban centres, cities such as Langford (188), Esquimalt (173), North Vancouver (135), Abbotsford (118), and Chilliwack (100) contribute to a provincewide total of 5,840 in these listed cities. As someone who’s lived and worked throughout the Cowichan Valley, I always keep an eye on how trends in larger markets influence the opportunities and choices right here at home. While it’s easy to assume that unsold presale homes are mostly studios or one-bed units, broader data on home size and average price suggests the story is more nuanced. Understanding where inventory sits—and what it means for our community—helps me guide clients to the right fit, whether they’re buying, selling, or simply exploring what’s out there in this ever-changing market.

National Day for Truth and Reconciliation honours survivors and raises awareness about their experiences.
It's a symbol of Canada's commitment to reconciliation with Indigenous communities.
Wearing orange shirts on this day symbolizes respect for survivors and raises awareness about residential schools.
May this day inspire a future where every voice is heard, and every spirit is healed.
Together, we can create a tomorrow filled with hope and endless possibilities.

As a lifelong Islander with deep roots in the Cowichan Valley, I keep a close eye on what’s happening in our local real estate market. Mid-Q3 numbers for Vancouver Island tell a story of shifting dynamics: total sales reached 651, just about 4% under last year, while active listings rose to 4,500—meaning buyers have more choice than they did even a short while ago. Single-family homes saw the sharpest change, with 298 sold (down 11% from last year and 19% from earlier this quarter). This reflects the more selective, careful pace that’s shaping our market right now—buyers are weighing their options, especially when it comes to single-family homes. Condo apartments, on the other hand, held steadier with 70 sales, down only 4% year-over-year, as buyers compared carefully.

What stands out is that accurate pricing is more important than ever. Buyers are ready to move on if a home doesn’t meet their expectations, and those homes that are priced right and presented well are being rewarded. The single-family benchmark price reached $788,100 in Mid-Q3. Vancouver Island’s resiliency compared to the rest of BC is clear: our active buyers are measured, informed, and focused on value. With my background in home renovation and customer service, I know what it takes to prepare a property to meet today’s standards—and I’m always here to guide you toward making the valley your home.